[Ger-Poland-Volhynia] Musings about population demographics in Volhynia

[Jerry Frank]

Thank you to everyone for their comments , some very extensive, about the 
population figures for Volhynia.  Here are some additional comments (not 
intended to be argumentative) regarding some basic themes I see.

Large families:
I agree that there were a significant number of large families.  However, I 
don't think the average size would be up above 10.  There was quite a high 
infant / child mortality rate.  In many cases, only half or less of the 
children would survive to adulthood.  In some cases, all the children in a 
family are lost to an outbreak of cholera.  The large families would bring 
the average up but this would be mitigated by the mortality rate in others.

Census:
As some have already pointed out, the census in those times may not have 
had particularly good controls on it and may have been manipulated for 
political purposes.  Is the 1897 census reliable?  Were the 1880-1885 years 
the peak of population growth, being offset in later years by outward 
migration?

I would, in particular, consider post 1900 data especially suspect because 
of its application to the deportations of 1905 and 1915 and the political 
implications of that from various points of view.

Parish statistics:
A population of 12,700 is given for the Tutschin Parish in 1904 with some 
very large villages mentioned.  However, I counted all the villages in that 
parish and come up with 107.  That is an average of 118 persons per 
village.  If we extrapolate that average to all of Volhynia, we come up 
with about 153,000 Germans.

Some final comments:
I am not a student of demographics so it may be unfair to use average 
village population to determine total population.  While some villages may 
have had 500 Germans, others may have only had 20.  Perhaps that is too big 
a disparity to allow for fair use of averages.  However, I think the 
numbers of villages used, while not allowing for accuracy, should at least 
allow us to be in the ballpark.

One thing I did not see mentioned is consideration of the outward migration 
from Volhynia from 1888 onward.  Reference is still given to incoming 
migration but it is hard to put a handle on how many thousands left after 
1890 for East Prussia, and North and South America.

All things considered, it is my opinion that the 200,000 figure is probably 
too high.  How much too high - well, perhaps we can debate that for the 
next 50 years.    :-)




Jerry Frank - Calgary, Alberta
jkfrank at shaw.ca